Climate Futures provides tools to easily compare different greenhouse gas scenarios and time periods. To compare projections, click on Compare Projections in the menu bar. You will see the comparison interface as shown in Figure 1. In this interface, the user can select multiple combinations of greenhouse gas scenarios (from CMIP3 and CMIP5) and time periods for comparison. These can be displayed as multiple matrices or combined into one matrix.
Figure 1 The Compare Projections interface. See the notes below.
- Drop-down menu to select comparison method (multiple or composite).
- Drop-down menus to select the classifying variables used to define the climate futures matrices: two climate variables and their associated season (default climate variables are temperature and rainfall, and the default season is annual).
- Drop down menus for selecting a greenhouse gas scenario and time period (defaults are A1B and 2030).
- Remove buttons to remove the adjacent emissions scenario/ time period
- Add another button: allows addition of emissions scenario/ time period (a total of nine combinations can be displayed).
A total of nine target periods and greenhouse gas scenarios can be included (add more using the Add another button. Once the settings have been selected, click on a region on the map to generate the results. Depending on the comparison method chosen you will be presented with either the Multiple Matrices () or a Composite Matrix ().
Note: To ensure the comparison is valid, the changes displayed must be calculated using the same base period. Accordingly, results in both the composite matrix and the multiple matrices calculated relative to the period 1980 – 1999.
Comparing projections: multiple matrices
The Multiple Matrices screen (Figure 2) shows projected climate futures for each chosen time period and greenhouse gas scenario for the two classifying climate variables in the region of interest.
Figure 2. Multiple matrices comparison. See the notes below.
- The time period and greenhouse gas scenarios for which the climate futures were generated are listed here, along with Remove and Add buttons.
- Refresh button to update the results.
- Climate futures are grouped with a) greenhouse gas scenario running top to bottom and b) time periods from left to right.
- Due to space restrictions, the Climate Futures categories and the colour legend are described below the matrices.
These are smaller versions of the full matrix view (Figure M) and only show the spread of model results, and no model names or variable results can be obtained from this view. This view can be used to quickly view how a climate projection changes over time or how projections vary under different greenhouse gas scenarios.
Comparing projections: Composite Matrices
The Composite Matrix screen shows projected “climate futures” for each chosen time period, and greenhouse gas scenario for the two classifying climate variables in the region of interest within a single matrix. (Figure 3). This view is similar to the advanced view with the exception that the associated time period and greenhouse gas scenario are displayed alongside the corresponding model names. This view is useful for looking at the combined likelihood of a climate future to see if certain climate futures only occur under certain time period/greenhouse gas scenario combinations. Conversely, it also helps identify any climate futures that are projected to occur under many or all time/emissions combinations. It is also a useful way to see how the older CMIP3 projections compare to the new CMIP5 ones.
Note that projected change values from individual models cannot be obtained from this matrix. These are available from the Detailed Projections matrix.
Figure 3. Composite Matrix Comparison. See the notes below.
- The time period and greenhouse gas scenarios for which the climate futures were generated are listed here, along with Remove and Add buttons.
- Refresh button to update the results.
- Models along with the associated time period and greenhouse gas scenario are displayed within the Climate Futures Matrix.